Wednesday, November 03, 2004
The Morning After
Wednesday, November 3, 2004. The Morning After.
I quit drinking 26 years ago after I had hepetitis and discovered six months after I recovered that even a sip of booze hurt my insides. I haven't missed the booze or, especially, the hangovers. The morning after tying one on were miserable. I remember saying to myself, "Was that woman I was flirting with really that pretty? Did I really make that obnoxious remark? Did I really try to pick a fight with 300-pound gorilla?"
This morning I'm having another type of hangover--a sadness and hubris hangover--and I'm asking myself, "Was my candidate really that good? Did I really predict to friends that the youth and female vote would create a Kerrry landslide? Did I really believe those exit polls published on blogs in the late afternoon and that the networks wouldn't touch? Did I really say that the pre-election polls were all wrong because they couldn't reach cell phones."
I wasn't drunk, I was wrong. I let my heart and my hopes color my thinking. I didn't realize that voters would vote their hearts, not their heads; would vote according to their faith rather than according to the facts; would vote according to their short-term interests rather than long-term ideals; and were so worried about "security" that they were willing to give up some of their own and, especially, others' constitutional rights (including prisoners of war).
I was also wrong about blogs as the new media model. This was the election that I thought (and hoped too much) would be influenced by blogs. But the blogs not only got it wrong but also you couldn't get to many of them. Reports this morning indicated that the severs of several of the most popular blogs crashed--Daily Kos, Talking Points, and Wonkette among them. The liberal-leaning blogs posted exit poll results that were favorable to Kerry. The exit poll results were distributed virally in the late afternoon and gave Kerry supporters (like me) false hope. The networks got it right this time by not referring to any exit polls and being cautious.
CNN was the most cautious, ABC the most aggressive in calling wins for states and, thus, electoral votes. I wonder if anyone watched CBS's coverage. Did ABC or the networks' coverage matter? Not much, although I suspect that by being aggressive, ABC probably picked up viewers. We'll see what this means for future elections; however, I do believe that the TV news networks are much too full of themselves and think they have a lot of power to influence elections, like not calling states until all the polls have closed. If you look at a map of red and blue states this year and in 2000, the two maps are virtually identical. Few people changed their minds from the 200o election.
Also, Bruce Springsteen and the rock and show business stars didn't help bring out the youth vote. Some estimates indicate the only one in ten young people (18-29) voted. Joe Trippi wrote in a blog on MSNB that the future of the country was in the hands of the future of the country. Nice line, and true--the future of the country were irresponsible and didn't care about the future of the country. Joe Trippi forgot, as I did, about the self-absorbtion and notoriously short -term vision of many young people, who think long-term is day after tomorrow.
But Aaron Brown of CNN did quote at length Buzzmachine's Jeff Jarvis's post-election peace pledge:
I promise to... Support the President, even if I didn't vote for him..... Criticize the President, even if I did vote for him..... Uphold standards of civilized discourse in blogs and in media while pushing both to be better.... Unite as a nation, putting country over party, even as we work together to make America better.
Well said. I'll try to follow it.
What will Bush's second term mean for the media? I would try to predict, but today I have no faith in my ability to predict. I think Howard Stern said it best--that he is glad he is moving to satellite radio. Life in radio and television is going to be hell...and cleaner.
I quit drinking 26 years ago after I had hepetitis and discovered six months after I recovered that even a sip of booze hurt my insides. I haven't missed the booze or, especially, the hangovers. The morning after tying one on were miserable. I remember saying to myself, "Was that woman I was flirting with really that pretty? Did I really make that obnoxious remark? Did I really try to pick a fight with 300-pound gorilla?"
This morning I'm having another type of hangover--a sadness and hubris hangover--and I'm asking myself, "Was my candidate really that good? Did I really predict to friends that the youth and female vote would create a Kerrry landslide? Did I really believe those exit polls published on blogs in the late afternoon and that the networks wouldn't touch? Did I really say that the pre-election polls were all wrong because they couldn't reach cell phones."
I wasn't drunk, I was wrong. I let my heart and my hopes color my thinking. I didn't realize that voters would vote their hearts, not their heads; would vote according to their faith rather than according to the facts; would vote according to their short-term interests rather than long-term ideals; and were so worried about "security" that they were willing to give up some of their own and, especially, others' constitutional rights (including prisoners of war).
I was also wrong about blogs as the new media model. This was the election that I thought (and hoped too much) would be influenced by blogs. But the blogs not only got it wrong but also you couldn't get to many of them. Reports this morning indicated that the severs of several of the most popular blogs crashed--Daily Kos, Talking Points, and Wonkette among them. The liberal-leaning blogs posted exit poll results that were favorable to Kerry. The exit poll results were distributed virally in the late afternoon and gave Kerry supporters (like me) false hope. The networks got it right this time by not referring to any exit polls and being cautious.
CNN was the most cautious, ABC the most aggressive in calling wins for states and, thus, electoral votes. I wonder if anyone watched CBS's coverage. Did ABC or the networks' coverage matter? Not much, although I suspect that by being aggressive, ABC probably picked up viewers. We'll see what this means for future elections; however, I do believe that the TV news networks are much too full of themselves and think they have a lot of power to influence elections, like not calling states until all the polls have closed. If you look at a map of red and blue states this year and in 2000, the two maps are virtually identical. Few people changed their minds from the 200o election.
Also, Bruce Springsteen and the rock and show business stars didn't help bring out the youth vote. Some estimates indicate the only one in ten young people (18-29) voted. Joe Trippi wrote in a blog on MSNB that the future of the country was in the hands of the future of the country. Nice line, and true--the future of the country were irresponsible and didn't care about the future of the country. Joe Trippi forgot, as I did, about the self-absorbtion and notoriously short -term vision of many young people, who think long-term is day after tomorrow.
But Aaron Brown of CNN did quote at length Buzzmachine's Jeff Jarvis's post-election peace pledge:
I promise to... Support the President, even if I didn't vote for him..... Criticize the President, even if I did vote for him..... Uphold standards of civilized discourse in blogs and in media while pushing both to be better.... Unite as a nation, putting country over party, even as we work together to make America better.
Well said. I'll try to follow it.
What will Bush's second term mean for the media? I would try to predict, but today I have no faith in my ability to predict. I think Howard Stern said it best--that he is glad he is moving to satellite radio. Life in radio and television is going to be hell...and cleaner.
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